Have patience with prime pitchers who had rough April - USA TODAY

By Ron Shandler, BaseballHQ.com

Updated

Two-time National League Cy Young Award winner Tim Lincecum of the San Francisco Giants gave up at least five earned runs in each of his first three starts this season. The resulting 10.54 ERA had many of his fantasy owners panicking.

Jeff Roberson, AP

Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Yovani Gallardo has pitched better than his overall numbers would suggest.

There were questions about his velocity. There was speculation about the two-year decline in peripherals he brought into the 2012 season. It all turned out to be an overreaction.

In the two outings since, he has pitched 13 innings, allowed seven hits and one earned run. Had he opened the season with these two starts, would we be reveling over his 0.69 ERA?

We have to look past the small sample sizes and remember that proven pitchers almost always will perform to the level we expect. But that level is measured over the course of a full season.

After five starts, Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Yovani Gallardo has a 6.08 ERA. At face value, he is hurting his fantasy owners. But this April-only sample is deceiving.

Gallardo pitched superbly in three of his starts, hurling seven innings and allowing no more than two earned runs in each. In the other two â€" both against the St. Louis Cardinals â€" he was blown out. But with 27 strikeouts in 27 innings and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.5, he is pitching just fine.

He pitches in the San Diego Padres' pitcher-friendly Petco Park this week. Odds are Gallardo will display vintage skills.

Similarly, Cardinals veteran Adam Wainwright held a 7.32 ERA after four starts. Coming off Tommy John elbow surgery in 2011, some might suspect he is having trouble getting the rust off.

But his peripherals are outstanding, with 21 strikeouts in 20 innings and a 4.2 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His unlucky .360 batting average on balls in play and 53% strand rate have inflated his ERA.

History has shown patience often is the best approach with proven pitchers.

In 2004, then-Minnesota Twins ace Johan Santana struggled for two months, coming out of his June 4 start with a 5.50 ERA. From that point on, he became the best pitcher in baseball, posting a 1.64 ERA and winning 12 consecutive starts in one stretch.

In 2008, CC Sabathia, then of the Cleveland Indians, opened the season with a 13.50 ERA after four starts. He was unable to get out of the fifth inning in any of them and allowed nine runs twice.

But he was a dominant 17-7 the rest of the way with a sparkling 1.88 ERA.

In 2010, Houston Astros lefty Wandy Rodriguez was 3-10 with 6.09 ERA on June 18. But from June 19 on, he went 8-2 (with eight no-decisions) with a 3.08 ERA.

And on June 11, 2011, the Miami Marlins' Javier Vazquez had a 7.09 ERA. He posted a 1.92 ERA over his final 19 starts.

Whether it is the cold spring weather or simply needing time to find a rhythm, pitchers are tough to assess in small, early samples.

That's why BaseballHQ.com's mantra is, "Exercise excruciating patience."

Contributing: Shandler is the founder of BaseballHQ.com. He takes questions at 11 a.m. ET Wednesday at fantasybaseball.usatoday.com.

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